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Now that the March 6 filing deadline for California candidates has come and gone, have the chances increased or decreased to get a mostly-conservative Republican governor?

With even imbalanced, liberal polls showing Republicans Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton in the “top two” (in California’s “jungle” primary election, only the top two vote-getters go on to the November runoff). And with the big egos of Democrats tempting them stay in the race (likely to get statewide recognition for their future campaigns), it’s looking more plausible that Republicans could “shut out” the Democrats by winning the “top two.”

Only Democrat Ian Calderon of East Los Angeles, not a statewide “name,” dropped out on Thursday, one day before the March 6 candidate filing deadline. And while he endorsed Eric Swalwell, I suspect Calderon’s racist Hispanic Democrat Party followers will prefer another Hispanic, either Antonio Villaraigosa or Xavier Becerra.

More Democrat Party leaders are worrying, and more Republican Party activists are noticing, that if California conservatives are energized to vote and propel Bianco and Hilton to “top two” positions in the June 2 “jungle” primary, that would “lock in” a mostly-conservative Republican governor in the November runoff, which would be truly historic.

Here’s our new hypothetical scenario of the governor’s race in California’s “jungle” primary. Based on the voter turnout in California’s 2024 presidential general election, SaveCalifornia.com gives 40% of the electorate to conservatives, including Republicans, and 60% of the vote to liberals, including Democrats:

21% Steve Hilton (R)
19% Chad Bianco (R)
– – – – –
15% Eric Swalwell (D)
12% Katie Porter (D)
9% Tom Steyer (D)
5% Xavier Becerra (D)
5% Antonio Villaraigosa (D)
3% Betty Yee (D)
3% Tony Thurmond (D)
3% Matt Mahan (D)
5% other

So, if you’re conservative, now is not the time to debate whether Bianco or Hilton is better. For a mostly-Republican governor is only assured if both Republicans get enough support to be the top two vote-getters who go on to the November election, where only their names will be on ballot for governor, and then one of them will be elected governor.

Heavily Democratic California could elect a Republican governor for the first time in two decades as a result of its primary voting system, recent polling suggests. The Golden State has for over a decade mandated “top-two” primaries for state and congressional elections. Candidates in those races compete in the same primary, with the first- and second-place finishers, regardless of party affiliation, advancing to the general election. In California’s 2026 gubernatorial election, however, the presence of many Democrats with no clear frontrunner could possibly lead to the two well-known Republicans taking both spots on the general election ballot, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton.
Anthony Iafrate, Daily Caller News Foundation, Dec. 6, 2025