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In light of California’s “jungle primary,” is splitting the votes of conservatives good or bad, and what are the chances of a mostly-conservative Republican being on the November 2026 ballot or being elected governor?

To answer, mostly-conservative Republican Steve Hilton’s entrance into the 2026 California governor’s race has immediately split the conservative vote between him and mostly-conservative Republican Chad Bianco.

If Hilton had not declared his candidacy, Bianco would have been virtually assured of being the highest or second-highest vote-getter in the primary.

Still, in the hypothetical scenarios I’ve been crunching, it’s plausible that a Republican could be one of “the top two” in the primary election, and if Kamala Harris doesn’t jump in, there’s even a path for either Bianco and Hilton to become governor.

The 2026 primary election scenarios below divide up 59% of the vote between the Democrat Party candidates and 38% of the vote between the Republicans. This is based on California’s 2024 presidential election results, and are rounded up or rounded down to match.

Here are the “bigger” declared candidates, so far, in alphabetical order who want to replace Democrat Governor Gavin Newsom, who’s termed out:

Democrats:
Toni Atkins, former State Senate leader, former State Assembly leader
Xavier Becerra, former U.S. congressman, former State Attorney General, and former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services
Eleni Kounalakis, current Lieutenant Governor
Katie Porter, former U.S. congresswoman
Tony Thurmond, former state assemblyman and current State Superintendent of Public Instruction
Antonio Villaraigosa, former state assemblyman, former mayor of Los Angeles
Betty Yee, current State Controller

Republicans:
Chad Bianco, current sheriff of Riverside County
Steve Hilton, media voice, former tech start-up founder, former U.K. government advisor

SCENARIO 1: Two Democrats win “the top two” slots of the June 2026 primary election (two really work hard at the expense of the other Dems), so both Democrats advance to the November election, and a Democrat will again become governor:

22% Becerra
21% Porter
19% Bianco
18% Hilton
4% Villaraigosa
4% Thurmond
3% Yee
3% Kounalakis
3% Atkins
3% other

SCENARIO 2: 1 Democrat + 1 Republican win “the top two” (the Democrat Party machine pushes 1 Democrat hard at the expense of the others):

25% Becerra
20% Bianco
18% Hilton
9% Porter
7% Thurmond
6% Yee
5% Kounalakis
4% Villaraigosa
3% Atkins
3% other

SCENARIO 3: 1 Democrat + 1 Republican win “the top two.” Here, the biggest Democrat, Kamala Harris, enters the race and “sucks all the oxygen out” of the other Democrats.

If Harris enters the race, expect up to 5 Democrats to drop out (Atkins, Kounalakis, Porter, Thurmond, and Yee). Also expect Harris to be puffed and promoted by California’s New Communist machinery. This scenario means a Republican will be on the November ballot.

39% Harris
20% Hilton
18% Bianco
12% Becerra
8% Villaraigosa
3% other

SCENARIO 4: Two Republicans win “the top two” (if Big Democrat Kamala Harris doesn’t jump in, Democrats might simply split into 7 portions that are smaller than the 2 Republican portions), meaning there will be a Republican governor:

20% Hilton
18% Bianco
13% Becerra
12% Porter
8% Thurmond
8% Yee
7% Kounalakis
6% Villaraigosa
5% Atkins
3% other

I’ve provided these 4 scenarios to give you hope. In 3 of the 4, a Republican (either Bianco or Hilton, both mostly-conservatives) advances to the general election. Let this energize you to support the candidate who best represents your values!

“Moreover you shall select from all the people able men, such as fear God, men of truth, hating covetousness; and place such over them to be rulers of thousands, rulers of hundreds, rulers of fifties, and rulers of tens.”
Advice of Moses’ father-in-law Jethro in Exodus 18:21